Do Stay at Home Orders and Cloth Face Coverings Control COVID-19 in New York City? Results From a SIER Model Based on Real-world Data.

Abstract

BackgroundPublic health interventions have been implemented to contain the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in New York City. However, the assessment of those interventions—for example, social distancing and cloth face coverings—based on real-world data from published studies is lacking. MethodsThe Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental model was used to evaluate the effect of social distancing and cloth face coverings on the daily culminative laboratory confirmed cases in New York City (NYC) and COVID-19 transmissibility. The latter was measured by Rt reproduction numbers in 3 phases that were based on 2 interventions implemented during this timeline. ResultsTransmissibility decreased from phase 1 to phase 3. The initial R0 was 4.60 in phase 1 without any intervention. After social distancing, the Rt value was reduced by 68%, while after the mask recommendation, it was further reduced by ~60%. ConclusionsInterventions resulted in significant reduction of confirmed case numbers relative to predicted values based on the SEIR model without intervention. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of social distancing and cloth face coverings in slowing down the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in NYC.