Do social restriction policies responding to COVID-19 pandemic associated with economic growth?

Heru Fahlevi,Muslim A Djalil,Jalaluddin Jalaluddin,Teuku Rizky Saevic,A Rahman,A Opdyke,Muksin Muksin,Y Idris,E Meilianda,A Suppasri,E Mas,T Musa,H.A Haridhi,I Rusydy

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202234005002

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to examine the statistical relationship between restriction and containment policies in respond to COVID-19 pandemic and the countries’ economies. This study also maps countries based on their economic growth and the public mobilization restriction policies. The GDP growth was extracted from the economy prognosis from the International Monetary Fund. To determine the restriction policy level, the stringency index (SI) produced by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) was used. The SI is between 0 – 100 in a range that is computed based on containment and closure policies, for instance, stay at home requirement and closure of public facilities, and public events. The SI used in this study is the average score of the first 3 months after the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic (11 March 2020). Using the Spearman correlation test to investigate the relationship between GDP growth and restriction level in 166 countries, this study demonstrates a negative association between GDP growth and the SI. This means that countries that imposed stricter policies in the early COVID-19 pandemic tend to have higher GDP contraction. However, the correlation coefficient is relatively weak (-0.200), and thus, every government has the opportunity to reduce the unintended outcomes of restriction policies by providing economy and financial support packages for businesses, people, and other affected groups.

Highlights

The spread of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID19) has reached almost every country in the world
As there is no consensus in terms of the results, this study aims to examine the statistical relationship between public mobilization policies and countries’ economies
GDP growth has declined during the first year of pandemic

Summary

Introduction

The spread of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID19) has reached almost every country in the world. The policies include the closure of public facilities (school, offices, and restaurants), working from home, quarantines and even lockdown [2]. These policies often vary in terms of duration, and level of restrictions [3]. Governments tend to strengthen the policy when the case number has risen and relax the restriction when the case starts to decline. This reflects a national dilemma whether to save lives or the country’s economy

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Conclusion