Abstract
Economic preferences may be shaped by exposure to sex hormones around birth. Prior studies of economic preferences and numerous other phenotypic characteristics use digit ratios (2D : 4D), a purported proxy for prenatal testosterone exposure, whose validity has recently been questioned. We use direct measures of neonatal sex hormones (testosterone and oestrogen), measured from umbilical cord blood (n = 200) to investigate their association with later-life economic preferences (risk preferences, competitiveness, time preferences and social preferences) in an Australian cohort (Raine Study Gen2). We find no significant associations between testosterone at birth and preferences, except for competitiveness, where the effect runs opposite to the expected direction. Point estimates are between 0.05–0.09 percentage points (pp) and 0.003–0.14 s.d. We similarly find no significant associations between 2D : 4D and preferences (n = 533, point estimates 0.003–0.02 pp and 0.001–0.06 s.d.). Our sample size allows detecting effects larger than 0.11 pp or 0.22 s.d. for testosterone at birth, and 0.07 pp or 0.14 s.d. for 2D : 4D (α = 0.05 and power = 0.90). Equivalence tests show that most effects are unlikely to be larger than these bounds. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of prior findings relating 2D : 4D to economic preferences, and highlight the importance of future large-sample studies that permit detection of small effects.
Highlights
One of the oldest questions in the social sciences is how people’s personality and preferences develop over the lifespan [1]
Inclusion criteria were gestational age between 16 and 20 weeks, English language skills sufficient to understand the implications of participation, an expectation to deliver at King Edward Memorial Hospital (KEMH) and an intention to remain in Western Australia to facilitate future follow-ups
The cohort design of the Raine Study allows us to combine existing measures with economic preferences measured in our experiments
Summary
One of the oldest questions in the social sciences is how people’s personality and preferences develop over the lifespan [1]. Recent studies in economics provide causal evidence that preferences are shaped by environmental factors in childhood [2,3]. The fetal environment can have long-lasting effects on later-life outcomes. In the health and psychological sciences, there is significant evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis, whereby exposure to environmental factors during critical periods of fetal development has lifelong influences on health, behaviour and cognition [4], as well as important socio-economic outcomes [5,6]. One frequently studied factor of the fetal environment is the exposure to sex hormones. Exposure in utero to sex hormones such as testosterone is thought to have long-lasting organizational effects on the brain [7,8]. Differences in sex hormone exposure may help explain sex differences and within-sex heterogeneity in personality and preferences
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
