Do satellite-based products suffice for rainfall observations over data-sparse complex terrains? Evidence from the North-Western Himalayas

Abstract

Remotely sensed observations are crucial for conducting meteorological studies, particularly over complex mountainous terrains such as, the North-Western Himalayas (NWH), which are characterized by a very sparse and uneven distribution of ground observatories. These complex terrains are subject to huge inter-basin climatic and topographic heterogeneity, which often induces large inconsistencies in the form of varying rainfall estimations and observations among the satellite-based gridded precipitation products (GPPs). This underpins the need for a detailed sub-regional validation of GPPs and attribution of the observed discrepancies over such complex terrains. This study provides a comprehensive validation analysis of four major high-resolution GPPs (TMPA-3B42V7, CHIRPS-V2.0, CMORPH-CDR, and PERSIANN-CDR) against the in-situ gridded observations provided by IMD, across the six sub-basins of NWH. Utilizing various descriptive, statistical, and categorical metrics, we evaluated the daily, seasonal, and annual rainfall climatology for each dataset and also extracted their longitudinal and latitudinal error profiles and detection capabilities as a function of elevation and local relief. High inconsistencies were observed among the datasets, with each dataset performing differently over different sub-basins. All the datasets underperformed IMD over higher elevations, while TMPA-3B42V7 performed better even over the Upper Indus sub-basin. CHIRPS-V2.0 performed well over Jhelum, and Chenab sub-basins, whereas the CDR version of CMORPH, performed well over the flatter terrains of Ravi, Beas, and Satluj sub-basins, particularly during the summer monsoons. The IR-based PERSIANN-CDR, on the other hand, failed to capture the daily rainfall estimates and underperformed IMD throughout NWH. The findings further highlight low detection capability of datasets at higher rainfall thresholds, indicating underestimation of extreme rainfall. With respect to the relationship between GPPs performance and topographic components, the results showed that the occurrence frequency of rain detection in GPPs decreases, while the occurrence frequency of over-detection increases with increase in elevation and local relief. Although, the performance of GPPs co-varies with both topographic components, local relief governed by the multi-step topographic gradients comprising valleys, orographic fronts, and orographic interiors was observed to have a more profound effect on error profiles. Lastly, the study identifies and discusses the probable regional (e.g., rainfall structure, orographic influence, biophysical, data scarcity, spatial resolution), and product-specific (e.g., source of generation, remote sensing instrumentation, satellite algorithms, data assimilation techniques) factors attributing to the inconsistencies observed among the datasets. The findings from the present research offer insights to the algorithm developers for improving product accuracy and hydro-meteorologist for utilizing appropriate GPP over respective sub-basin.