Do Residency Applicant Measures Predict Future Performance?

Abstract

Objective: To determine if residency applicant measures are predictive of resident performance. Method: A retrospective review of the residents graduating from 2006-2012 was performed. Residency applicant measures including board scores, medical school grades, and applicant rank were recorded. These were compared to measures of resident performance including otolaryngology training exam (OTE) scores and composite 360° evaluation scores obtained during the final year of residency. Results: Data was available on 20 residents. Residency applicant board scores were minimally predictive of resident OTE scores during the final year of residency ( r2 = 0.377). There was no significant correlation between board scores and performance on evaluations ( r2 = 0.10). Grade received during the surgical clerkship had an inverse correlation with performance on the OTE ( r2 = 0.13). The surgical clerkship grade also had no correlation with evaluation score ( r2 = 0.04). Most notably, applicant rank had minimal correlation with final resident performance as measured by composite evaluation score ( r2 = 0.06). Conclusion: Commonly used measures of applicant quality are minimally predictive of ultimate resident performance. Further studies are indicated to identify better predictors of resident performance.