Abstract
In this article, we argue that the design and timing of regulatory responses, as well as the adherence of the population to the relevant rules, have a critical impact on the progression and public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This hypothesis is empirically tested using the example of Poland, a country that experienced, compared to its Western European neighbours, a relatively mild first phase of the pandemic. In this context, we compare Poland with selected countries, including France, Germany, Spain and the UK, and we supplement them with examples from other Visegrad Four (V4) countries – Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary. On that basis, we conclude that while the observed differences between the countries in the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic are the result of a multitude of complex and interrelated reasons (such as demographic structure, population density and connectivity or cultural factors), well-designed public health measures, which are implemented early as a part of the proactive strategy that anticipates and reacts quickly to changing circumstances, can effectively decrease the number of COVID-19 infections and related deaths, provided that the adherence of the relevant population is high.
Highlights
Epidemiologists have long warned that another pandemic was inevitable,[1] and, when it came, it could kill millions.[2]
We argue that the design and timing of regulatory responses, as well as the adherence of the population to the relevant rules, have a critical impact on the progression and public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic
We conclude that while the observed differences between the countries in the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic are the result of a multitude of complex and interrelated reasons, well-designed public health measures, which are implemented early as a part of the proactive strategy that anticipates and reacts quickly to changing circumstances, can effectively decrease the number of COVID-19 infections and related deaths, provided that the adherence of the relevant population is high
Summary
Epidemiologists have long warned that another pandemic was inevitable,[1] and, when it came, it could kill millions.[2]. New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia are conventionally identified as the leaders.[5] On the other hand, the initial success of the Visegrad Four (V4) countries (ie Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) has received less attention in the international media and academic literature.[6] This is surprising as all four countries have seen much lower numbers of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in the first phase of the pandemic than their Western European peers or countries from South and North America This picture has changed as the pandemic has continued to unfold, it remains clear that its first phase was relatively mild in the V4 region. We draw some general conclusions regarding the characteristics of the optimal regulatory strategy for managing the pandemic
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