Abstract
In this paper we use data from the Consensus Economics forecast poll to explore the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters with respect to forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. We focus on four key macroeconomic variables for the G7 countries to analyze whether private sector forecasters herd towards the projections published by these international organizations. Our empirical results show that an anti-herding strategy of private sector forecasters is prevalent for the G7 countries, i.e., they intentionally place their forecasts away from the forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. In addition, we find that the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters lasts roughly 3months.
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