Do Presidential Debates Matter? Examining a Decade of Campaign Debate Effects

Abstract

This study responds to The Racine Group's (2002) call for campaign debate research that explores “the trans-campaign effects of debates on such matters as voting behavior, image formation, and attitude change” (p. 199). Our analysis of debate effects from 2000 to 2012 provides a number of important insights into how presidential campaign debates function in different campaign contexts. Specifically, we examine debate effects across multiple campaign periods, including analysis of the presidential election cycles and debates in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012; and we also explore campaign contexts in which incumbents are seeking reelection (2004 and 2012) as well as “open” races with no incumbent president engaged in general election debates. Finally, our analysis allows for comparative assessments across different types of debates as we include viewer responses to both Democrat and Republican primary and general election debates, as well as vice presidential debates. Overall, our findings support existing presidential debate research, provide a greater understanding of specific debate effects, and also raise a number of intriguing questions for future research.