Do population-related factors matter for carbon emissions? Lessons from different income groups of countries

Abstract

In an era of rising global population and urbanisation, understanding demographic shifts and CO2 emissions dynamics has become crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 13. This study employs robust econometric procedures to investigate population-related factors influencing CO2 emissions across countries with varying income levels from 1993Q1 to 2018Q4. Our empirical findings reveal several vital insights. First, urbanisation positively impacts CO2 emissions across income groups. Second, unemployment tends to decrease CO2 emissions in most income groups, except for lower-income countries, with negligible effect. Besides, an ageing population drives CO2 emissions in upper-middle and lower-middle-income nations but constrains emissions in high-income countries. Population density impedes CO2 emissions in high and lower-middle-income countries but enhances them in lower-income nations. Life expectancy negatively influences CO2 emissions in high and upper-middle-income countries but positively affects emissions in lower-middle-income nations. Finally, causality tests reveal bidirectional relationships between CO2 emissions and determining factors such as population density, ageing population, urbanisation, life expectancy, and per capita GDP. Our findings highlight that policies promoting global ecological balance through CO2 emissions reduction should account for rising population-related factors.