Abstract
A prominent characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic is the marked geographic variation in COVID-19 prevalence. The objective of the current study is to assess the influence of population density and socio-economic measures (socio-economic ranking and the Gini Index) across cities on coronavirus infection rates. Israel provides an interesting case study based on the highly non-uniform distribution of urban populations, the existence of one of the most densely populated cities in the world and diversified populations. Moreover, COVID19 challenges the consensus regarding compact planning design. Consequently, it is important to analyze the relationship between COVID19 spread and population density. The outcomes of our study show that ceteris paribus projected probabilities to be infected from coronavirus rise with population density from 1.6 to 2.72% up to a maximum of 5.17–5.238% for a population density of 20,282–20,542 persons per square kilometer (sq. km.). Above this benchmark, the anticipated infection rate drops up to 4.06–4.50%. Projected infection rates of 4.06–4.50% are equal in cities, towns and regional councils (Local Authorities) with the maximal population density of 26,510 and 11,979–13,343 persons per sq. km. A possible interpretation is that while denser cities facilitate human interactions, they also enable and promote improved health infrastructure. This, in turn, contributes to medical literacy, namely, elevated awareness to the benefits associated with compliance with hygienic practices (washing hands), social distancing rules and wearing masks. Findings may support compact planning design principles, namely, development of dense, mixed use, walkable and transit accessible community design in compact and polycentric regions. Indeed, city planners should weigh the costs and benefits of many risk factors, including the COVID19 pandemic.
Highlights
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a declared global pandemic with multiple risk factors (WHO report: coronavirus)
The map in the appendix demonstrates another challenge to compact planning design, namely, the spread of the COVID19 pandemic
≤ yj < 1 ; constant xj′ is term; a matrix whose dimensions xj,2 = PopulationDensityj in square kilometers; xj,3 = Population_Density2j ; xj,4 = Gini Indexj and xj′,5 = Socio-Economic ranking of the Local Authority, which ranges between 1 = the lowest, to 10 = the highest)
Summary
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a declared global pandemic with multiple risk factors (WHO report: coronavirus). Compact areas facilitate more intensive human interaction and could lead to higher exposure to the infection, which make them the potential epicenter of the pandemic crisis (Glaeser 2011; Eubank et al 2004). Dense areas tend to have superior health and educational systems that are more prepared to handle pandemics, leading to higher recovery rates and lower mortality rates (Dye 2008). Developed areas have the infrastructure to more effectively put in place measures that foster social distancing, reducing actual rates of infection. The urbanization processes vis á vis a credible terrorist rocket threats that Israel faces (Elster et al 2017) may pose a challenge to the conventional approach of compact urban planning. The map in the appendix demonstrates another challenge to compact planning design, namely, the spread of the COVID19 pandemic.
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