Do People Favour Policies that Protect Future Generations? Evidence from a British Survey of Adults

Hilary Graham,Piran C L White,J Martin Bland,Mona Kanaan,Richard Cookson

doi:10.1017/s0047279416000945

Abstract

AbstractLong-range temporal choices are built into contemporary policy-making, with policy decisions having consequences that play out across generations. Decisions are made on behalf of the public who are assumed to give much greater weight to their welfare than to the welfare of future generations. The paper investigates this assumption. It briefly discusses evidence from sociological and economic studies before reporting the findings of a British survey of people's intergenerational time preferences based on a representative sample of nearly 10,000 respondents. Questions focused on two sets of policies: (i) health policies to save lives and (ii) environmental policies to protect against floods that would severely damage homes, businesses and other infrastructure. For both sets of policies, participants were offered a choice of three policy options, each bringing greater or lesser benefits to their, their children's and their grandchildren's generations. For both saving lives and protecting against floods, only a minority selected the policy that most benefited their generation; the majority selected policies bringing equal or greater benefits to future generations. Our study raises questions about a core assumption of standard economic evaluation, pointing instead to concern for future generations as a value that many people hold in common.

Highlights

Policy making involves decisions that play out over time
The large majority of participants were able and willing to express a view on the policy options, either by selecting one of the three policies or by stating that they did not have a preference
This group represents 95 per cent of those asked about policies to save lives (n=2949 and 1924 respectively for versions 1 and 2 of the policy question) and 93 per cent of those asked about policies to protect against floods (n=3055 and 3081 for versions 1 and 2 of the policy question)

Summary

Introduction

Policy making involves decisions that play out over time. Policies to improve welfare systems and protect the environment require upfront investment to secure longer-term benefits; deciding against such policies may leave current generations relatively unscathed but hit future generations hard. The fact that policies have inter-temporal impacts (impacts that vary over time) has long. Policy making is based on the assumption that the public give much greater weight to their welfare than to the welfare of future generations (Stern et al, 2006; HM Treasury, 2013). There is scant empirical evidence on people’s preferences regarding the timing of benefits and costs across generations with respect to health and environmental policies. We focus on these intergenerational time preferences

Results

Discussion

Conclusion