Do pennies matter? Investor relations consequences of small negative earnings surprises

Abstract

Anecdotal and survey evidence suggest that managers take actions to avoid small negative earnings surprises because they fear disproportionate, negative stock-price effects. However, empirical research has failed to document an asymmetric pricing effect. We investigate investor relations costs as an alternative incentive for managers to avoid small negative earnings surprises. Guided by CFO survey evidence from Graham et al. (J Account Econ 40:3–73, 2005), we operationalize investor relations costs using conference call characteristics—call length, call tone, and earnings forecasting propensity around the conference call. We find an asymmetric increase (decrease) in call length (forecasting propensity) for firms that miss analyst expectations by 1 cent compared with changes in adjacent 1-cent intervals. We find no statistically significant evidence that call tone is asymmetrically more negative for firms that miss expectations by a penny. While these results provide some statistical evidence to confirm managerial claims documented in Graham et al. (J Account Econ 40:3–73, 2005) regarding the asymmetrically negative effects of missing expectations, our tests do not suggest severe economic effects.