Do parties still shape policies in times of crisis? The impact of financial constraints on partisan policymaking in Italy (1996–2018)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of macro-economic conditions on partisan policymaking through an analysis of novel data on the fulfilment of 2412 Italian pledges. Are parties able to produce ideologically driven policies even during economic downturns? And how does the economic context affect parties’ capacity to fulfil their pledges? In this paper, I contend that the interaction between macroeconomic conditions and the policymaking process is more complex than it is usually depicted and cannot be restricted to the constraints, financial above all, engendered by a recession period. Results from binary logistic regressions indeed suggest that parties do maintain a certain room for manoeuvre to influence the governing agenda in times of crisis. Even though in some cases pledge fulfilment is severely affected by deteriorations of economic conditions, parties are still able to carry out a large share of their programmatic priorities. Moreover, the economic situation mostly challenges left-leaning governments.