Do parole abolition and Truth-in-Sentencing deter violent crimes in Virginia?

Abstract

This paper examines the treatment effect of the justice reform enacted on January 1, 1995, in Virginia. Using FBI’s Uniform Crime Report data about crime rates per 100,000 population from 1960 to 2010, we find that after the reform the reported aggregated violent crime rate declined significantly and is mainly driven down by the decrease in robbery. We also consider property crime and find that the reported property crime rate does not decline until 4 years later, indicating that the justice reform in Virginia also has lagged treatment effect on property crime.