Do Orthopaedic In-Training Examination Scores Predict the Likelihood of Passing the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery Part I Examination? An Update With 2014 to 2018 Data.

Abstract

Previous research shows a correlation in performance between the Orthopaedic In-Training Examination (OITE) and the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery (ABOS) Certifying Examination Part I; however, these studies are not current, with the most recent data from 2009. The purpose of this study was to update the relationship between the OITE and ABOS Part I scores with the five most recent nationwide cohorts of Part I scores and their corresponding OITE scores. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons provided the results for each resident taking the OITE from 2013 to 2017. The ABOS provided the results for each resident taking the Part I examination from 2014 to 2018. These two datasets were matched at the individual level and analyzed. Between 2014 and 2018, 3,502 first-time test-takers were present for the ABOS Part I Examination. A 96.6% pass rate was noted (3,383 of 3,502). A statistically significant correlation between the OITE score and ABOS Part I score was observed at all levels of training: postgraduate year (PGY) 1 r = 0.380, PGY2 r = 0.463, PGY3 r = 0.498, PGY4 r = 0.504, and PGY5 r = 0.504 (P < 0.001 for all correlations). The OITE scores continue to correlate with the ABOS scores and the pass rate for the ABOS with moderate strength correlation. However, although a correlation of the examinations exists when evaluated as a group, the predictive value of the OITE for passing the Part I examination for any specific individual is far from perfect. Individuals with PGY5 OITE percentile scores less than 10 pass the Part I examination, and individuals with PGY5 OITE percentile scores greater than 90 fail the Part I examination.