Do Oil Markets Work: Is Opec Dead

Abstract

In this paper the authors review what has happened in world oil markets since the 1970s and examine the prospects for OPEC and world oil prices. The paper summarizes the data for the last two decades: by fuel, by product, and by region. It focuses on OPEC and its members, examining the differences in behavior between its members and non-OPEC producers. The authors find that OPEC is clearly still relevant, if no longer very powerful. Its members have collectively reduced output dramatically, in an unsuccessful attempt to defend the price increases. They examine the important institutional changes of the last two decades, in comparison with the industry's stability for much of the century. They suggest an interpretation of OPEC's current situation. The paper summarizes the outlook for OPEC and the world oil market over the next two decades.