Do miracles exist? Analyzing economic performance comparatively

Abstract

When is a country's economic performance miraculous? Current studies do not satisfactorily answer this question because shared standards are missing, as are genuine comparative analyses. This paper remedies these lacunas by proposing and applying a new conceptualization and operationalisation of miracles that allows for proper comparative research. The paper argues that miraculous performance requires excellence in terms of economic growth, employment, and public debt. A fuzzy-set ideal type analysis of 19 OECD countries over the period 1975–1999 shows that the distribution of miracles and other varieties of economic performance models is mixed and volatile, and suggests cross-national divergence. Cross validating these findings by means of a factor analysis produces similar results. The fuzzy-set technique is, however, preferable because this approach provides more information on the individual cases. This study's contribution is twofold: the findings further the miracle debate and demonstrate the value of fuzzy-set analysis for comparative research.