Do Investors Adjust for Balance Sheet Risk that Should Be 'Off Balance Sheet'? Evidence from Cash Flow Hedges

Abstract

We identify an item recognized on the balance sheet that distorts the assessment of default risk. Firms enter into derivatives to protect themselves from price fluctuations on a future purchase or sale commitment denominated in a commodity, foreign currency, or interest rate. There are two reasons why the accounting for these transactions creates difficulty in default risk assessments. First, while the fair value of the derivative is recorded at each balance sheet date, the value of the forecasted purchase or sale commitment is not recorded. Therefore, the balance sheet only tells half of the economic story. Second, the gains/losses associated with these derivatives provide a signal about future firm profitability, which is a determinant of default risk. We examine the extent to which debt investors, credit analysts, and equity investors understand the implications of these transactions for a firm’s default risk. Our results suggest that all three of these groups remove derivative amounts from firms’ balance sheet ratios when assessing default risk. However, only debt investors correctly price the implications of future profitability on default risk. Overall, our results suggest that the accounting for cash flow hedges distorts a firm’s leverage and profitability ratios, that not all investors adjust for this, and that capital market participants might benefit from more transparent hedging disclosures, particularly related to profitability.