Do individuals expect the Phillips curve? Evidence from the European Consumer Expectations Survey

Gerda Kirpson,Karsten Staehr

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111430

Do individuals expect the Phillips curve? Evidence from the European Consumer Expectations Survey

Gerda Kirpson, Karsten Staehr

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111430

Copy DOI

Journal: Economics Letters

Publication Date: Nov 3, 2023

Affiliation: Tallinn University of Technology, Bank of Estonia

#Phillips Curve #Economic Slack + Show 8 more

Abstract
Full-Text PDF
Similar Papers

Abstract

Are the expectations of individuals in Europe consistent with the Phillips curve? To investigate we run panel data estimations on micro data from the European Consumer Expectations Survey. The estimations reveal a positive relationship between expected inflation and economic slack. This lack of consistency with the Phillips curve holds even when proxies for supply shocks are included.

Full Text