Abstract
The paper empirically analyses the causal relationship between immigrants and crime using data for German administrative districts between 2008 and 2019. Before the refugee crisis (2008–2014), an increase in the current share of immigrants increased the total crime rate. In contrast, the effect was negative (or insignificant) during and after the refugee crisis (2015–2019). When analysing the total period, the estimates average out to zero. Studying more closely the composition of the migrant group, a plausible explanation of the negative (or insignificant) effect of immigrants on crime in the later period is related to a larger share of migrants with a less certain residence status.
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