Do grades reflect the development of excellence in music students? The prognostic validity of entrance exams at universities of music

Abstract

For successful admission to universities of music, prospective students have to pass entrance exams which assess the quality of their music-making and, in some instances, their abilities in music theory and aural training. However, only very little is known about the validity of such grades and the skill development of expectant professional musicians. For the first time, the present study analyzes the long-term development of grades of students in a bachelor degree program ( N = 63) over a period of 3 years. As the grades were neither interval-scaled nor normally distributed, a logistic regression analysis was calculated to quantify the predictability of final grades in the main instrument and music theory based on the respective entrance exam grades. The prognostic validity was low for grades in both the main instrument and music theory/aural training (Nagelkerke R2 = .08 and .01). This result can be mainly attributed to two explanations: First, university grades are often inflated and subject to ceiling effects. Second, the curricula in music theory contain such variety that it is impossible to define what all students across the board learn. In order to better define expertise skill development in students, we suggest initiating regular competency-based assessments for professional musicians at a pre-collegiate and collegiate level.