Do disasters provide an opportunity for regional development and change the societal trend of impacted communities?: Case study on the 1995 Kobe earthquake

Abstract

Extreme natural events have a significant impact on communities. Post-disaster demographic changes can be an indicator of societal changes in communities. These changes in communities would differ reflecting the societal situation of the pre-event, even though the impact of damage and reconstruction projects is similar. However, it is still not clear what societal changes are specifically caused by disasters and thus are distinguishable from general changes. This study conducted a case study of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake and assessed the variations in impacts on regional demographics through comparisons with other regions with similar neighborhood characteristics. This study set out with three tasks: (1) to quantitatively classify neighborhood characteristics across Japan; (2) compare the demographics of the damaged area with those of others; and (3) assess the relationship between damage, demographics, and housing investments in affected areas. The results of the analysis show that an event concentrated neighborhood changes and facilitated them in heavily damaged areas, based on preexisting demands. This implies that the disaster in Kobe (1995), did not create new development demand and suggests that reconstruction after disasters should not be considered a development opportunity to accelerate regional growth but is actually dealing with preexisting demands.