Do decaying rural communities have an incentive to maintain large-scale farming? A comparative analysis of farming systems for peri-urban agriculture in China

Abstract

Rural decay is changing rural landscapes worldwide, but its impacts on agricultural production, especially on large-scale farming, are still being debated in the scientific literature. Certain researchers see it as a threat to large-scale farming, whereas others view it as an opportunity for modern agriculture. Here, this paper presented an integrated framework and used a case study to exemplify this issue. A model selection approach (OLS, SEM, and SLM) was performed to assess the impacts of rural decay on large-scale farming based on a comparative analysis of farming systems for peri-urban agriculture (efficient agriculture, semi-subsistence agriculture, and leisure agriculture) in China. The assessment showed that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation between rural decay and large-scale farming in the region. The results of the comparative analysis indicated that contrasting impacts were recorded in three farming systems: their relationship in rural communities practicing efficient agriculture and semi-subsistence agriculture tended to be more consistent by reason of the rural exodus, farmland abandonment, and residential vacancy providing crucial preconditions for large-scale farming. However, contrasting patterns were observed in leisure agriculture, and their conflicting relationship due to low dwelling density and population aging trapped large-scale farming in a disadvantaged position. In general, rural decay could partially and temporally accelerate large-scale farming, but it does not seem to be a favorable phenomenon to promote large-scale farming in the long term. Therefore, some effective strategies, such as providing more off-farm employment opportunities, improving land consolidation and machinery for agricultural production, and adapting various farming systems, may contribute to the feasible implementation of policies aiming to reverse rural decay and even accelerate large-scale farming.