Do conditional cash transfers improve intergenerational gains in educational achievement?: Evidence from Brazil’s Bolsa Familia Program

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Conditional cash transfer programs are designed to interrupt the intergenerational cycle of poverty by improving health and educational outcomes. We evaluate the efficacy of the world’s largest CCT program utilizing educational outcomes from the complete administrative records at the intra-family level of Brazil’s Bolsa Família program (PBF). Although we find that younger siblings subject to the Bolsa Família conditionalities outperform their older, untreated siblings in educational attainment within the same household, the overall effect size remains substantively small. We consider the educational attainment of 15–17 year old beneficiaries with siblings who were above the age of 18 at the time of family enrollment. Our findings show precisely estimated positive effects due to the large sample, indicating that the program yields minimal improvements in educational outcomes for ‘treated’ children compared to their ‘untreated’ siblings. Additionally, we find modest differences across boy and girl sibling pairs, but consistent regional effects, underscoring the importance of local public goods provision for enhancing program efficacy.