Do CO2 emissions impact energy use? An assessment of China evidence from 1953 to 2017

Abstract

Bidirectional causality between energy use and carbon emissions has widely been explored, but the results in the existing research are still controversial. Focusing on China, we reveal the bidirectional causality between energy use and carbon emissions, and then take carbon emissions as a factor influencing energy use into decomposition analysis by the Logarithmic Mean Index (LMDI) approach. The study span 1953–2017 is divided into two main developing stages based on multiple breakpoint tests, stage one: 1953–2001, before entering World Trade Organization (WTO); and stage two: 2001–2017, after entering WTO. The results show that emission effect and per capita emission effect indeed promoted energy use and even surpassed output effect at the beginning of stage two (2001–2005). The changes in energy use followed those in output effect at stage one, emission effect and per capita emission effect at the beginning of stage two, and energy intensity effect at the latter period of stage two. It indicates that energy efficiency has gradually been becoming a dominate role in energy use changes. The impact of energy mix effect was comparatively small.