Do better things come in smaller packages? Reducing game duration slows game pace and alters statistics associated with winning in basketball

Abstract

Basketball games are currently played across 48 and 40 minutes; however, little is known about the influence of game duration on team statistics. Therefore, we examined (i) differences in game-related statistics between 48- and 40-min games; (ii) statistical measures discriminating winning and losing teams relative to game duration; and (iii) the ability of statistical models to predict team success relative to game duration. Overall, 1,084 Australian professional men’s basketball games were analysed. Ball possessions (·min-1) had the largest difference (rpb = -0.30; P < 0.001), between 48- (1.92 ± 0.12) and 40-min games (1.79 ± 0.26), while offensive efficiency and defensive statistics were significantly (P < 0.001) greater during 40-min games. Most statistical measures significantly discriminated winning from losing teams, with larger disparities evident during 48-min games. Offensive rating (32.3-43.0% vs. 22.4-29.8%, P < 0.001) and Four Factors (32.3-43.0% vs. 22.4-29.8%, P < 0.001) each explained a greater proportion of variance in game outcome during longer games. A reduced duration slowed game pace and increased offensive efficiency, possibly due to greater maintenance of defensive pressure slowing opposition transitions and promoting controlled offensive structures. The ability of game-related statistics to discriminate winning teams and predict game outcome diminished with reduced game duration.