Do age-based discontinuation recommendations influence cervical cancer screening rates? Evidence from the United States' Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2016 and 2018

Abstract

The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends that women with adequate prior screening and average cervical cancer risk discontinue routine cervical cancer screening after age 65. This study's objective was to estimate how the USPSTF recommendation affects Papanicolaou (Pap) test rates among women at age 66 in the United States. We used nationally representative 2016 and 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for women ages 56–76 (n = 226,031) and a regression discontinuity design to estimate changes in annual Pap test rates at age 66. Among women age 66–76, 22.5% reported receiving a Pap test within the past one year. At age 66, annual Pap rates declined by 5.9 percentage points (p.p.) (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: −7.7, −4.1) off a pre-66 rate of 39%. The change varied by race/ethnicity, education, and marital status. Pap rates did not change discretely for non-Hispanic Black women (0.8 p.p.; 95% CI: −5.4, 7.1) but did for women from other racial/ethnic groups. The decline was larger for women who graduated college (−9.0 p.p.; 95% CI: −12.0, −5.9) than for women without a college degree and for women who were never married (−9.4 p.p., 95% CI: −17.3, −1.5) than for women who were married/partnered or divorced/separated. The USPSTF recommendation to discontinue cervical cancer screening after age 65 leads to a sharp decline in Pap test rates at age 66 but disparately affects women based on race, education and marital status. Further study is needed to assess the consequences of these changes.