Do abnormally high temperatures stimulate rural labour migration? Evidence from China

Abstract

ABSTRACT Exploring the implications of climate change on rural labour employment is pivotal for formulating policies to combat the climate crisis. This research utilizes China’s unique and comprehensive individual-level rural data, coupled with nearly three decades of climate-related data to empirically examine the impact of abnormal temperatures on the duration of rural labour employment outside their home counties. The findings reveal that abnormal high-temperature shocks notably prolong the duration of rural labourers working outside their home county. This effect is particularly pronounced among the younger labour force, those lacking agricultural skill training, and individuals residing in provinces with limited grain-production capacity. Labour migration induced by abnormal heat may pose a challenge to agricultural security.