Abstract

Generic rules on how to organize the process of putting DMDU approaches and tools into actual practice are currently lacking. Lessons can be drawn from the Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) approach used in the Dutch Delta programme on flood risk management, freshwater availability, and spatial adaptation. In the context of putting a DMDU approach into practice, three consecutive phases can be distinguished, with specific aspects that require extra attention: (I) Directly following the political decision to actually start a long-term programme that will deal with the deeply uncertain issue, the programme itself should be designed to keep political involvement “at arm’s length”. (II) Strategy development requires a narrative that explains how uncertainty is dealt with; that narrative should match the specific societal and political context of the moment. (III) Implementing adaptive strategies requires organizational arrangements for systematically accommodating adjustments, a monitoring system for timely detecting of signals, and a decision-making process that links directly to its output. On a more general level, it can be concluded that DMDU approaches, such as described in the scientific literature, can profit from feedback—feedback from other researchers and feedback from practitioners. Organizing the latter, an instrumental element of “coproduction of knowledge”, might be more time consuming, but is likely to be very effective.

Highlights

  • In the context of putting a Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approach into practice, three consecutive phases can be distinguished, with specific aspects that require extra attention: (I) Directly following the political decision to start a long-term programme that will deal with the deeply uncertain issue, the programme itself should be designed to keep political involvement “at arm’s length”. (II) Strategy development requires a narrative that explains how uncertainty is dealt with; that narrative should match the specific societal and political context of the moment. (III) Implementing adaptive strategies requires organizational arrangements for systematically accommodating adjustments, a monitoring system for timely detecting of signals, and a decisionmaking process that links directly to its output

  • 14.1 Organizational Aspects of Putting a DMDU Approach into Practice. It is implicitly assumed by DMDU scholars that their approaches will be welcomed—that they will be embraced politically and accepted institutionally—suggesting that implementing a DMDU approach is mainly a technical and intellectual challenge

  • An important ingredient of the advice of the Second Delta Committee is to install a Delta Fund especially assigned for flood risk management and freshwater availability “at distance from the regular national budgets and other funds that have a wider field of application. (...) Funds are available on the moment that they are needed; expenditure follows the realization of the necessary measures

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Summary

14.1 Organizational Aspects of Putting a DMDU Approach into Practice

It is implicitly assumed by DMDU scholars that their approaches will be welcomed—that they will be embraced politically and accepted institutionally—suggesting that implementing a DMDU approach is mainly a technical and intellectual challenge. In a typical execution-oriented policy programme, three consecutive and sometimes partly overlapping phases can be distinguished: (I) the phase prior to the actual start of the programme, in which political commitment is mobilized; (II) the phase of strategy development and decisionmaking, focusing on the analysis of the challenges and on inventorying and selecting options for intervening; and (III) the phase of elaboration and implementation of the strategies, in which monitoring and adjustment of strategies are central These phases may overlap, and it may be necessary to pass through them more than once before producing a stable output. Choosing an adaptive strategy implies higher requirements for generating and interpreting data on actual and possible future changes in system conditions and

14 DMDU into Practice
14.2 The Case Study
14.3 Phase I
We should concentrate on model calculations of global weather systems
14.3.2 Develop Attractive and Plausible Perspectives
14.3.3 Enhance Public Awareness and Political Commitment
14.4 Phase II
14.4.1 Create a Narrative that Mobilizes Administrative and Political Decisionmakers
14.4.3 Evaluate and Upgrade the Approach Regularly
14.4.4 Operationalize the DMDU Approach
Design
14.5.1 Plan the Adaptation
14.5.2 Organize the Adaptation
14.5.3 Rethink Monitoring and Evaluation
Findings
14.6 Conclusions, Reflections, and Outlook
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