Diverted from the “Correct Vote”? Foreign Policy Influence on Electoral Behavior*

Abstract

ObjectiveWe consider the influence foreign policy issues and events can have on the voting calculations of individuals; specifically, how foreign policy influences the probability of “correct voting.”MethodWe use data from the 2004 American National Election Study along with a measure of “correct voting” from Richard Lau and David P. Redlawsk (1997, American Political Science Review, 91(3): 585–98) and Lau, Andersen, and Redlawsk (2008, American Journal of Political Science, 52(2): 395–411).ResultsOur results indicate that salient foreign policy issues viewed to be favorably handled by the incumbent have the potential to alter voting calculations to favor the incumbent. In the 2004 presidential election, individuals who should have voted for Kerry were more likely to vote incorrectly if terrorism was a salient issue. This pattern was not observed on another foreign policy issue: Iraq.ConclusionThis research further clarifies the strong link foreign policy can have with the electoral behavior of individuals. It speaks to the correct voting literature in expanding upon what elements can modify voter calculations. It also speaks to researchers in foreign policy and public opinion by expanding our understanding of the conditions for when foreign policy issues and voter behavior can be fused.