Diversity of food systems for securing future food availability

Abstract

We depict the different models of likely future value-chains for agro food sector. The starting points of the reflection are the main coming geo-physical constraints acknowledged by most scientists (rise of sea level; climatic disaster higher frequency; scarcity of concentrated energy and other material resources). Thus the effects of the coming changes (and especially the effects of the global warming) upon agriculture are a regular study topic, while the effects of the other constraints, and the likely evolutions of the food systems as a whole, remain quite overlooked. When the scarcity of resources becomes general (as it is the case for oil and minerals in the coming decades), the present value-chains may no longer function. We draw from these evidences to design 6 models of food value-chains (including farming, processing and delivery systems). We therefore describe the models : “Today” (any food, in-store selling everywhere, at any time); “Amazon” (any food, at home in metropoles, at any time); “Chariot” (mainly local food, in streets of cities and villages, seasonal products); “Roman villa” (local food, at farm, seasonal products); “Survival” (energetic food, specific location, in response to disasters or to “hunger gap”); “Exportation food” (spices, salt etc., at any time). Only the last four together will be frugal enough to be compliant with the future geo-physical constraints. We also explore some consequences in terms of the future way of life, around the topics of agricultural work and cities.