Diversity in reservoir surface morphology and climate limits ability to compare and upscale estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Rank-order concordance among conflicting emissions estimates for informing flight choice

Abstract. Conferences, meetings and congresses are an important part of today's economic and scientific world. But the environmental impact, especially from greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel, can be extensive. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for the warming of the atmosphere and oceans. This study draws on the need to quantify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel activities and aims to give suggestions for organizers and participants on possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrated on the example of the European Geography Association (EGEA) Annual Congress 2013 in Wasilkow, Poland. The lack of a comprehensive methodology for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from travel led to an outline of a methodology that uses geographic information systems (GIS) to calculate travel distances. The calculation of travel distances in GIS is adapted from actual transportation infrastructure, derived from the open-source platform OpenStreetMap. The methodology also aims to assess the possibilities to reduce GHG emissions by choosing different means of transportation and a more central conference location. The results of the participants of the EGEA congress, who shared their travel data for this study, show that the total travel distance adds up to 238 000 km, with average travel distance of 2429 km per participant. The travel activities of the participants in the study result in total GHG emissions of 39 300 kg CO2-eq including both outward and return trip. On average a participant caused GHG emissions of 401 kg CO2-eq. In addition, the analysis of the travel data showed differences in travel behaviour depending on the distance between conference site and point of origin. The findings on travel behaviour have then been used to give an estimation of total greenhouse gas emissions from travel for all participants of the conference, which result in a total amount of 79 711 kg CO2-eq. The potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by substituting short flights with train rides and car rides with bus and train rides is limited. Only 6 % of greenhouse gas emissions could be saved by applying these measures. Further considerable savings could only be made by substituting longer flights (32.6 %) or choosing a more central conference location (26.3 %).

Porvair makes environmental improvements across its global operations

The traditional upscaling approach to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates of inland waters is imprecise, but more precise methods based on environmental drivers are a longstanding challenge. Mexico lacks GHG emission estimates for its inland waters, and only sparse but scientifically validated information is available. This study provides the first GHG emission estimates from Mexican inland waters using 4275 GHG flux measurements from 26 distinctive waterbodies and one local and another global surface area dataset (INEGI and HydroLAKES). GHG emission factors were calculated and subsequently upscaled to estimate total national GHG emissions from the inland waters and compare to other emission measures based on mean global emission factors or size-productivity weighted (SPW) models. Mean (standard error) annual fluxes from all inland waters were 2.2 (5.3) kg CO2 m−2 yr−1, 0.6 (1.14) kg CH4 m−2 yr−1, and 1.0 × 10−3 (6.0 × 10−4) kg N2O m−2 yr−1. Estimates for natural waterbodies are annual average release rates between 74 (87) and 139 (163.23) Tg CO2eq while artificial waterbodies reach between 32 (2) and 21 (21) Tg CO2eq according to INEGI and HydroLAKES datasets, respectively. Considerable uncertainty was determined in the calculated mean emission factor, mostly for anthropogenic emissions. Waterbody area and chlorophyll a concentration were used as proxies to model CO2 and CH4 fluxes through regression analysis. According to SPW and IPCC models, computed mean annual CH4 emission factors were close to our estimates and exhibited a strong influence from eutrophication. In a likely scenario of increased eutrophication in Mexico, an increase in total net emissions from inland waters could be expected.

The estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a change in land‐use and management resulting from growing biofuel feedstocks has undergone extensive – and often contentious – scientific and policy debate. Emergent renewable fuel policies require life cycle GHG emission accounting that includes biofuel‐induced global land‐use change (LUC) GHG emissions. However, the science of LUC generally, and biofuels‐induced LUC specifically, is nascent and underpinned with great uncertainty. We critically review modeling approaches employed to estimate biofuel‐induced LUC and identify major challenges, important research gaps, and limitations of LUC studies for transportation fuels. We found LUC modeling philosophies and model structures and features (e.g. dynamic vs. static model) significantly differ among studies. Variations in estimated GHG emissions from biofuel‐induced LUC are also driven by differences in scenarios assessed, varying assumptions, inconsistent definitions (e.g. LUC), subjective selection of reference scenarios against which (marginal) LUC is quantified, and disparities in data availability and quality. The lack of thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analysis hinders the evaluation of plausible ranges of estimates of GHG emissions from LUC. The relatively limited fuel coverage in the literature precludes a complete set of direct comparisons across alternative and conventional fuels sought by regulatory bodies and researchers.Improved modeling approaches, consistent definitions and classifications, availability of high‐resolution data on LUC over time, development of standardized reference and future scenarios, incorporation of non‐economic drivers of LUC, and more rigorous treatment of uncertainty can help improve LUC estimates in effectively achieving policy goals. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Identifying effective agricultural management practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation: A win-win strategy in South-Eastern Australia

Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are a new strategy for mitigating climate change. Many international organizations and scholars have assessed the possibility of holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C based on INDCs. Although the conclusions of these assessments are consistent, there are still large differences among the assessment results. For example, the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 estimated by INDCs are between 47.1–66.5 GtCO2 eq, and the temperature increase at the end of the 21st century estimated by INDCs is between 2.4–4.0°C; the inconsistency represented by these ranges is not conducive to an accurate assessment of the contributions of the current INDCs to global warming mitigation or to the further development of emissions reduction programs. By summarizing the existing studies, we found that the main reasons for the differences in estimates of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 made using INDCs are as follows: (1) The studies interpreted INDCs differently, which is attributable to three reasons: The studies (a) made different assumptions for the unquantifiable INDCs; (b) ignored or used different methods to estimate the emissions not covered by INDCs; and (c) used different amounts of INDCs because the studies were performed at different times. (2) The studies used different databases that include different greenhouse gases, accounting methods and data sources to estimate historical greenhouse gas emissions. (3) The studies used different methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and removals related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). (4) The studies used different values of the global warming potential. Additionally, the main reasons for the differences in the predictions of the temperature increase at the end of the 21st century based on INDCs are as follows: (1) Differences in the estimations of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 based on INDCs and (2) different methods of extrapolating global greenhouse gas emissions to 2100. There are three main extrapolation methods: one is to maintain the net present value of the carbon price in 2030 and then extrapolate the greenhouse gas emissions to 2100; another is to maintain the decarbonization rate of a certain period of history and then extrapolate the greenhouse gas emissions to 2100; the third is to match the emissions reduction scenario with the current INDC emissions reduction scenario from the IPCC AR5 scenario database and then use the matching emissions reduction scenario as the current INDC emissions reduction scenario. The use of different methods of extrapolating carbon emissions is one of the main reasons for the differences in the prediction results. (3) Differences in the methods for predicting the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on temperature. Statistical methods and simulation methods are the two main prediction methods; they use different calculation methods, which led to the difference in the prediction results. Therefore, the following points are worth noting: (1) Most importantly, to the extent possible, countries should submit absolute emissions reduction targets as much as possible; nonquantifiable INDCs without detailed methods descriptions and data introductions should not be submitted; (2) authorities should recommend certain data sets that are the most suitable for INDC accounting; (3) a global warming potential should be designated to avoid differences in greenhouse gas estimates due to the use of different criteria; and (4) to the extent possible, future research should adopt simulation methods for predicting the impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on temperature.

Accuracy in national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation is a key element for outlining best strategies to reduce GHG emissions from various source sectors of the economy. In this study, an initial attempt has been made to estimate GHG emissions from waste sector in Rawal Town - an urban city of Rawalpindi district in Pakistan. Tier 1 approach of Revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines and the best available primary activity data collected for the study area were applied for the fiscal year June 2014-May 2015. Emissions of three GHGs - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) under three waste management practices i.e. solid waste disposal sites, wastewater handling, and waste incineration were assessed. Out of the total 417.84 Gg CO2 equivalent emissions, the share of each gas (CH4, CO2 and N2O) in total emissions was found as 11.31, 0.53, and 0.58 Gg respectively. Solid waste disposal sites are identified as the largest source of CH4 emissions (10.73 Gg). To make the country's GHG emissions estimates more robust for waste sector, such type of local area based studies established on primary activity data could be advantageous for reducing uncertainties in national emission estimates.

Emissions of CO2 and CH4 from freshwater reservoirs constitute a globally significant source of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), but knowledge gaps remain with regard to spatiotemporal drivers of emissions. We document the spatial and seasonal variation in surface diffusion of CO2 and CH4 from Douglas Lake, a hydropower reservoir in Tennessee, USA. Monthly estimates across 13 reservoir sites from January to November 2010 indicated that surface diffusions ranged from 236 to 18,806 mg·m−2·day−1 for CO2 and 0 to 0.95 mg·m−2·day−1 for CH4. Next, we developed statistical models using spatial and physicochemical variables to predict surface diffusions of CO2 and CH4. Models explained 22.7% and 20.9% of the variation in CO2 and CH4 diffusions respectively, and identified pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and Julian day as the most informative predictors. These findings provide baseline estimates of GHG emissions from a reservoir in eastern temperate North America, a region for which estimates of reservoir GHGs emissions are limited. Our statistical models effectively characterized non-linear and threshold relationships between physicochemical predictors and GHG emissions. Further refinement of such modeling approaches will aid in predicting current GHG emissions from unsampled reservoirs and forecasting future GHG emissions.

Estimates of GHG emissions by hydroelectric reservoirs: The Brazilian case

The body of life cycle assessment (LCA) literature is vast and has grown over the last decade at a dauntingly rapid rate. Many LCAs have been published on the same or very similar technologies or products, in some cases leading to hundreds of publications. One result is the impression among decision makers that LCAs are inconclusive, owing to perceived and real variability in published estimates of life cycle impacts. Despite the extensive available literature and policy need formore conclusive assessments, only modest attempts have been made to synthesize previous research. A significant challenge to doing so are differences in characteristics of the considered technologies and inconsistencies in methodological choices (e.g., system boundaries, coproduct allocation, and impact assessment methods) among the studies that hamper easy comparisons and related decision support. An emerging trend is meta-analysis of a set of results from LCAs, which has the potential to clarify the impacts of a particular technology, process, product, or material and produce more robust and policy-relevant results. Meta-analysis in this context is defined here as an analysis of a set of published LCA results to estimate a single or multiple impacts for a single technology or a technology category, either in a statisticalmore » sense (e.g., following the practice in the biomedical sciences) or by quantitative adjustment of the underlying studies to make them more methodologically consistent. One example of the latter approach was published in Science by Farrell and colleagues (2006) clarifying the net energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of ethanol, in which adjustments included the addition of coproduct credit, the addition and subtraction of processes within the system boundary, and a reconciliation of differences in the definition of net energy metrics. Such adjustments therefore provide an even playing field on which all studies can be considered and at the same time specify the conditions of the playing field itself. Understanding the conditions under which a meta-analysis was conducted is important for proper interpretation of both the magnitude and variability in results. This special supplemental issue of the Journal of Industrial Ecology includes 12 high-quality metaanalyses and critical reviews of LCAs that advance understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of different technologies, processes, products, and materials. Also published are three contributions on methodology and related discussions of the role of meta-analysis in LCA. The goal of this special supplemental issue is to contribute to the state of the science in LCA beyond the core practice of producing independent studies on specific products or technologies by highlighting the ability of meta-analysis of LCAs to advance understanding in areas of extensive existing literature. The inspiration for the issue came from a series of meta-analyses of life cycle GHG emissions from electricity generation technologies based on research from the LCA Harmonization Project of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, which also provided financial support for this special supplemental issue. (See the editorial from this special supplemental issue [Lifset 2012], which introduces this supplemental issue and discusses the origins, funding, peer review, and other aspects.) The first article on reporting considerations for meta-analyses/critical reviews for LCA is from Heath and Mann (2012), who describe the methods used and experience gained in NREL's LCA Harmonization Project, which produced six of the studies in this special supplemental issue. Their harmonization approach adapts key features of systematic review to identify and screen published LCAs followed by a meta-analytical procedure to adjust published estimates to ones based on a consistent set of methods and assumptions to allow interstudy comparisons and conclusions to be made. In a second study on methods, Zumsteg and colleagues (2012) propose a checklist for a standardized technique to assist in conducting and reporting systematic reviews of LCAs, including meta-analysis, that is based on a framework used in evidence-based medicine. Widespread use of such a checklist would facilitate planning successful reviews, improve the ability to identify systematic reviews in literature searches, ease the ability to update content in future reviews, and allow more transparency of methods to ease peer review and more appropriately generalize findings. Finally, Zamagni and colleagues (2012) propose an approach, inspired by a meta-analysis, for categorizing main methodological topics, reconciling diverging methodological developments, and identifying future research directions in LCA. Their procedure involves the carrying out of a literature review on articles selected according to predefined criteria.« less

ABSTRACTSouth Korea has the tenth highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide, of which 16% originates from the road sector. Existing estimation methods of road GHG emissions have various limitations, such as low accuracy or the ability to only estimate GHG emissions within a limited area. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a methodology to estimate GHG emissions while considering various geometric designs of roads, including both vertical and horizontal alignment. The developed method is more objective and reliable than existing methodologies that consider only vertical alignment. First, Lamm's theory on travel speed profiles was applied to predict GHG emissions. Then, this study attempted to overcome the limited spatial estimation capacity of existing methods by considering upstream and downstream geometric design parameters simultaneously. Second, this study used the GHG operation mode extracted from the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), a modeling system that estimates emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project levels for criteria air pollutants, GHGs, and air toxicity. The operation mode includes vehicle type, fuel, and other factors, and is designed to estimate GHG emissions at 1-s intervals. Based on the results of the analysis, the effectiveness of the new method was compared to existing methods using an economic analysis (e.g., cost–benefits from the reduced emissions). This study presents a method for performing sensitive estimations of GHG emissions according to the geometric design of roads, which can be used to collect more accurate data on GHG emissions.

The aim of this study was to estimate the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated from whole life cycle stages of a sewer pipeline system and suggest the strategies to mitigate GHG emissions from the system. The process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) with a city-scale inventory database of a sewer pipeline system was conducted. The GHG emissions (direct, indirect, and embodied) generated from a sewer pipeline system in Daejeon Metropolitan City (DMC), South Korea, were estimated for a case study. The potential improvement actions which can mitigate GHG emissions were evaluated through a scenario analysis based on a sensitivity analysis. The amount of GHG emissions varied with the size (150, 300, 450, 700, and 900 mm) and materials (polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyethylene (PE), concrete, and cast iron) of the pipeline. Pipes with smaller diameter emitted less GHG, and the concrete pipe generated lower amount of GHG than pipes made from other materials. The case study demonstrated that the operation (OP) stage (3.67 × 104 t CO2eq year−1, 64.9%) is the most significant for total GHG emissions (5.65 × 104 t CO2eq year−1) because a huge amount of CH4 (3.51 × 104 t CO2eq year−1) can be generated at the stage due to biofilm reaction in the inner surface of pipeline. Mitigation of CH4 emissions by reducing hydraulic retention time (HRT), optimizing surface area-to-volume (A/V) ratio of pipes, and lowering biofilm reaction during the OP stage could be effective ways to reduce total GHG emissions from the sewer pipeline system. For the rehabilitation of sewer pipeline system in DMC, the use of small diameter pipe, combination of pipe materials, and periodic maintenance activities are suggested as suitable strategies that could mitigate GHG emissions. This study demonstrated the usability and appropriateness of the process-based LCA providing effective GHG mitigation strategies at a city-scale sewer pipeline system. The results obtained from this study could be applied to the development of comprehensive models which can precisely estimate all GHG emissions generated from sewer pipeline and other urban environmental systems.

As part of the current international effort to limit global warming, signatories to the Paris Agreement are required to quantify their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Former Kyoto Annex I countries thus report their emissions  annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) . This assessment allows countries to evaluate their progress in reducing GHG emissions and their compliance with existing agreements.The general approach to quantifying GHG emissions at the national level is to use activity data and emission factors  (bottom-up method). An independent  quantification can be achieved with inverse modelling, which makes use of an a priori estimate, atmospheric transport models (ATM), and atmospheric measurements of GHG concentrations (top-down method). However, the accuracy and uncertainty of inverse estimates are highly dependent on several parameters and modelling choices. Consequently, inter-model variability can be significant, potentially limiting the use of this technique in policy-relevant discussions.A representative quantification of GHG emissions based on inverse modelling requires an in-depth understanding of different inverse model estimates, their uncertainties and model limitations.  An intercomparison of three inverse methods and a suite of sensitivity tests were performed. This exercise considered two fluorinated gases (HFC-143a and PFC-218), which are potent GHGs with very different emission characteristics (diffuse versus point source). Both are covered under the European F-gas regulation. Additionally, HFC-143a is expected to be phased-down under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.We found that top-down estimates for Central and Western European countries are most sensitive to the ATM used. For gases with localised emission sources, such as PFC-218, the choice of a priori emissions and assigned model-data mismatch uncertainty are particularly relevant. For gases with widely distributed emission sources, such as HFC-143a, the emission estimates are more consistent and less sensitive to modelling choices. This detailed understanding of uncertainties in top-down estimates is then used to inform how inverse modelling can be used to support the reporting of halogenated GHG emissions at the national and European level.

The effect of methodology on estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from grass-based dairy systems