Diversionary Foreign Policy and Protest Coordination in Autocracy

Abstract

Revolutionary movements depend on mass mobilization. To prevent revolt, autocrats can use domestic and foreign policy instruments. We model the autocrat's policy choice with a focus on the coordination problem that underlies revolutionary mobilization. We show that the relationship between revolutionary threats and policy responses may be non-monotonic. Smaller threats may actually provide stronger incentives for autocrats to prevent mobilization, since policies are more cost-effective when threats are low. Furthermore, we show that domestic and foreign policies can serve as substitutes or complements. We argue that these insights help resolve contradictory empirical results.