Diverse responses of grassland dynamics to climatic and anthropogenic factors across the different time scale in China

Abstract

An accurate quantification in the separation of the relative contributions of climate change and human activities on grassland dynamics is crucial for controlling grassland degradation. Here, we investigated grassland dynamics in China by using net primary productivity (NPP) as an evaluation indicator from 1982 to 2016. We calculated the human-induced grassland NPP (HNPP) by subtracting the potential NPP (PNPP) from the actual NPP (ANPP) to distinguish the climatic and anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP changes across different time scales. Results indicated that the change in grassland ANPP resulted from different dominated factors in the two periods of 1982–1999 and 2000–2016. An obvious increase of grassland ANPP was observed from 1982 to 1999, which mainly due to a slight increasing trend in grassland PNPP driven by a humid-warm climate and a slight decrease in grassland HNPP from weak human activities. An overall increase in ANPP (69.576%) over its decrease portion (30.424%) was observed from 1982 to 1999. Human activities-induced ANPP increase mainly occurred in Shaanxi, Qinghai and Gansu Provinces and Tibet Autonomous Region for the grassland types of Alpine subalpine meadow, Meadow and Slope grassland. Climate-dominated decrease mainly occurred in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Heilongjiang, especially for Plain and Slope grassland. However, an overall decreasing trend of grassland ANPP was observed from 2000 to 2016, mainly attributed to a decreasing trend in grassland HNPP by human intervention and a warm-dry climate-induced negative effect on grassland growth. Overall, the grassland underwent a decrease than increase in ANPP (58.826% vs 41.174%) during 2000–2016; the contributions of climate factors to grassland ANPP increase was relatively greater than that of human factors in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia. Human activities-dominated ANPP decrease occupied 23.913%, obviously higher than the decrease dominated by climate change (9.248%), which mainly occurred in Alpine subalpine meadow, Desert grassland and Alpine subalpine grassland. Overall, these findings seem to demonstrate that there are great differences in the temporal and spatial effects of climate change and human activities on different regions and different grassland types in China before and after 1999, and contribute to providing location guidance for future grassland restoration. Meanwhile, this study is expected to improve the understanding of the driving mechanisms of grassland dynamics, and provide support for scientifically evaluating and adjusting ecological restoration policies in China.