Abstract
The aim of the present study was to estimate long-term trend in the amount of rainfall for Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) meteorological sub-division of India and each of the 13 districts under GWB separately. Monthly rainfall time series data of 100 years (1901-2000) were analyzed to measure monotonous trend of rainfall employing Sen’s slope estimator. Statistical significance of the trend was determined using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. An important result derived from the analysis was that the GWB sub-division and South 24 Parganas (S24P) district showed significant increasing trend (mm/year) of annual rainfall measuring 2.025 and 4.99 respectively. An inclining trend of monsoon precipitation, which was significant, found in four districts viz. Bankura, North 24 Parganas (N24P), S24P and West Midnapore along with GWB itself. A major finding of the study revealed that six districts and GWB had significant increasing trend in September rainfall with a maximum value of 1.324 mm/year in S24P district. Contribution of rainfall in October and post-monsoon season as well increased considerably in Kolkata and S24P districts while in December, similar trend was observed for Birbhum and Howrah districts. Murshidabad, S24P and East Midnapore districts experienced significant rising trend of precipitation in July, August and November respectively. On the contrary, Burdwan and Nadia districts, in the month of May and pre-monsoon season, had considerable declining trend of rainfall. Significant decreasing trend (mm/year) of precipitation, a concern for Nadia district, with magnitude of 0.127 and 0.293, was observed in the months of March and April respectively.
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