District-level disaster risk and vulnerability in the Northern mountains of Pakistan

Abstract

Mountain systems of Northern Pakistan are highly vulnerable due to their spatial locality, low natural capacity, insufficient or no alternatives to cope and to reduce the adverse impacts posed by natural stresses. This case study aims to provide a holistic approach to estimate district-level disaster risk and vulnerability rankings in the northern mountains of Pakistan (∼72,000 km2) by integrating inferences from the hazard and vulnerability assessments. Based on eight hazard and nine coping capacity indicators, districts are scaled by using Analytic Hierarchy Process and overlay weight analysis. The result shows that moderately exposed mountain communities with lower coping capacity is likely to cause calamities due to mountain-specific constraints. Specifically, the level of risk as the likelihood of destruction and severity is high in Shigar, Diamer and Ghanche. Moreover, Gilgit, Shigar and Ghizer lie in the Karakoram portion of Northern Pakistan are highly exposed to natural hazards. The ability of mountain communities residing in central Karakoram (Baltistan region) is lowest to withstand and cope with adverse effects of hazardous phenomena. This approach is expected to find possibilities for learning the relationship between hazards, likelihood of disasters and coping capacities of mountain communities.