District heating system's development decarbonization strategy assessment by system dynamics modeling and multi-criteria analysis

Abstract

The study introduces a hybrid model that integrates system dynamics modeling and multi-criteria analysis. Through the system dynamics model, the study examines energy, economic, and environmental indicators of a District Heating (DH) company, assessing its dynamics until 2050. Various decarbonization scenarios are explored, involving the transition of the DH system to a 4th generation DH (4GDH) system based on four strategies: utilizing at least (a) 50% Renewable Energy Sources (RES), (b) 50% waste heat, (c) 75% cogenerated heat, or (d) 50% of the combined aforementioned energy and heat. Additionally, development scenarios incorporate measures to enhance energy efficiency on the consumer side and within the heating networks. The sustainability of each scenario is evaluated using the multi-criteria analysis method TOPSIS. The hybrid model establishes a ranking of the transition pathways based on their sustainability scores and benchmarks the results of the developed scenarios against a carbon-neutral DH system. This model serves as a valuable guide for DH system developers and decision-makers. The study focuses on Riga as a practical case study.