District heating in the future - thoughts on the business model

Abstract

In this study, we apply a combination of methods for understanding how business models need to change to meet changing business conditions in the future (time horizon 2050). The process of applying the value proposition canvas and the business model canvas for understanding the future business models to the case of district heating has been documented. The energy transition necessitates a combination of new and existing solutions. District heating is one existing and enabling technology. The sector is, however, facing several challenges that will impact the way that business must be conducted in the future. We provide new knowledge about the characteristics of the future district heating business model and illustrate that technical development must be accompanied by business development otherwise the competitiveness of new technology is reduced. Main results show that a high level of digitalisation, enabling customers to make choices that are efficient to the district heating system, is a key future feature. Additionally, co-creation with a small group of dedicated customers will drive the sector's ongoing development. The results from the study are replicable and of relevance to other sectors undergoing large change.