Distributionally robust fuzzy project portfolio optimization problem with interactive returns

Abstract

Effective project selection and staff assignment strategies directly impact organizational profitability. Based on critical value optimization criterion, this paper discusses how uncertainty and interaction impact the project portfolio return and staff allocation. Since the exact possibility distributions of uncertain parameters in practical project portfolio problems are often unavailable, we adopt variable parametric possibility distributions to characterize uncertain model parameters. Furthermore, this paper develops a novel parametric credibilistic optimization method for project portfolio selection problem. According to the structural characteristics of variable parametric possibility distributions, we derive the equivalent analytical expressions of credibility constraints, and turn the original credibilistic project portfolio model into its equivalent nonlinear mixed-integer programming models. To show the advantages of the proposed parametric credibilistic optimization method, some numerical experiments are conducted by setting various values of distribution parameters. The computational results support our arguments by comparing with the optimization method under fixed possibility distributions.