Distributional Implications of Replacing the Federal Fuel Tax with per Mile User Charges

Abstract

Policy makers have begun to consider replacing state and federal fuel taxes with per mile user charges that would be more financially sustainable. The distributional implications of this change in tax policy are uncertain and raise equity concerns. This study uses data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey to evaluate the distributional implications of replacing the per-gallon federal fuel tax with an equivalent flatrate vehicle miles traveled (VMT) fee of 0.98 cent per mile. The analysis indicates that VMT fees will be less regressive than fuel taxes by shifting the burden of taxation from low-income households to high-income households. The results provide new insight on the transportation tax burdens of households at different stages of life and suggest that a VMT fee would shift the tax burden from retired households to younger households with children. Consistent with previous research, VMT fees are shown to shift the tax burden from rural households to urban households. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that VMT fees would be inequitable for low-income and rural households. Overall, a revenue-neutral VMT fee would change the annual tax burden of 98% of the population by less than $20. The small magnitude of these distributional implications suggest that addressing concerns about the equity of VMT fees should, perhaps, take a lower priority relative to other concerns, such as administration costs, evasion, and privacy.