Distribution of the Presidential Vote of 1912

Abstract

All are familiar with the assertion that party managers in the United States can no longer depend upon a steady partisan vote because of the increase in the number of independent voters. Various causes have been ascribed, important among which are the greater diffusion of common knowledge of public affairs and the increasing desire of the electorate to make the government more responsive to the public will. The most recent expression of national opinion has been widely considered as evidence of this condition and of these important causes. Inasmuch as the campaign of I9I2 not only introduced a powerful third party but also witnessed the active presentation of different conceptions of the nature of the government, particularly the function of political parties and their relation to different methods of expressing the popular will, a detailed examination of the election returns should go far toward testing the truth of the assertion. It is my purpose to do so by pointing out the distribution of the vote for each of the three leading candidates and by considering salient features of the distribution that seem to throw light on the causes that brought about the result. This preliminary analysis will serve as a basis for more extended examination. First it may be well to summarize the result by states. By pluralities Taft carried 2 states, Roosevelt 6, and Wilson 40. It was expected that pluralities would determine the result, yet in this sharply contested election Taft and Roosevelt together polled 73,000 votes less than Taft received four years before, while Wilson dropped iI6,ooo behind the Bryan vote of ig08.' Wilson's over-