Distribution of suitable habitat of Firmiana danxiaensis H.H.Hsue and H.S.Kiu in China: An integrated analysis based on changes in climate and high forest thematic resolution land use

Abstract

The distribution of species is mostly influenced by climate synergistic effects and land use. The prediction of endangered species is dependent on fine-scale environmental features, especially in forests. The capture of fine-scale suitable habitats is bounded by low spatial resolution and coarse categorization. In this study, we improved the land use information and forest spatial detail through high forest thematic resolution land use data. To understand the relative influence of environmental factors, suitable habitat models for Chinese endangered tree species (Firmiana danxiaensis) under three climate and high forest thematic resolution land use conditions was constructed. We also assess F. danxiaensis 's response to climate and land use, and differential performance in land use on the suitable habitat. The area of suitable habitat for F. danxiaensis grows slowly under the SSP1-2.6 (shared social pathway scenario) scenario, decreases by 21.33% from the present to 2090 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and expands significantly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We conclude that high forest thematic resolution land use is beneficial in capturing species' requirements for specific habitats and especially necessary in predicting endangered species. At the same time, the distribution of suitable habitats for species is primarily driven by climate, and limited their development by land use. The study shows that the synthetic effects of climate and land use change on F. danxiaensis are positive, with a marked trend toward the northeast. As a consequence, some endangered species are able to benefit from future SSPs scenarios, in particular they respond more strongly to the SSP5-8.5 scenario than to the other scenarios. Assessing the role of changes in the climate and high forest thematic resolution land use on F. danxiaensis will help promote sustainable land use management and contribute to the conservation policy for Chinese endangered species.