Distribution of cold wave mortalities over India: 1978–2014

Abstract

The present study explores the spatial and temporal pattern of cold wave related mortalities over India. The data for this study has been obtained from the annual reports pertaining to ‘Disastrous Weather Events’ published by India Meteorological Department, Pune for 37-years (1978–2014). The analysis reveals that a total of 8520 mortalities have been caused by 606 cold wave events, with an average of 230 mortalities per year. Only two states i.e. Bihar (44%) and Uttar Pradesh (31%) account for approximately 75% of total cold waves mortalities, while eleven states namely, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu and Tripura have never experienced cold wave events and mortalities. Interestingly, each cold wave event has caused approximately 43 mortalities alone in Bihar state. Furthermore, mortality (standardized by population) and density rates (standardized by area) in India have been observed to be 0.24 and 2.65, respectively. In temporal terms, cold wave events and mortalities have shown large interannual variations without any significant increasing or decreasing trend. Most of the cold wave events and mortalities have been observed in January and December months. Males have been found to be more severely affected by the cold waves than females and children. Overall, the results of this research may provide an understanding to develop effective disaster management guidelines for temperature extremes safety and preparedness.