Abstract
espanolEl cambio climatico representa un importante factor de riesgo para la supervivencia de las mariposas y de otras especies. En este estudio se han elaborado modelos predictivos que muestran las zonas potencialmente favorables para un lepidoptero endemico de la peninsula iberica, la morena espanola (Aricia morronensis), y las plantas nutricias de sus larvas, los alfilerillos o agujas de pastor (genero Erodium). Se ha utilizado el programa informatico MaxEnt para elaborar modelos de la distribucion de las especies en el presente y en el futuro, bajo dos escenarios de condiciones climaticas, basadas en variables climaticas y topograficas. Los resultados muestran que el cambio climatico no afectara significativamente a la distribucion de A. morronensis, sino que incluso podria favorecer levemente su expansion. Algunas de las plantas podrian sufrir una pequena reduccion de la favorabilidad del habitat. Sin embargo, la interaccion entre la mariposa y sus plantas nutricias probablemente no se vea afectada significativamente por el cambio climatico. EnglishClimate change is an important risk factor for the survival of butterflies and other species. In this study, we developed predictive models that show the potentially favourable areas for a lepidopteran endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish argus (Aricia morronensis), and its larval food plants, the storksbill (genus Erodium). We used species distribution modelling software (MaxEnt) to perform the models in the present and in the future in two climatic scenarios based on climatic and topographic variables. The results show that climate change will not significantly affect A. morronensis distribution, and may even slightly favour its expansion. Some plants may undergo a small reduction in habitat favourability. However, it seems that the interaction between this butterfly and its food plants is unlikely to be significantly affected by climate change.
Highlights
The effects of climate change are subject to much attention in conservation studies due to their influence on biodiversity, the changes produced on populations, communities and ecosystem dynamics, and the biotic interactions (Walther, 2010; Dawson et al, 2011; Giannini et al, 2013)
In this study we focused on the Spanish argus butterfly, Aricia morronensis (Ribbe, 1910) (Lycaenidae, Lepidoptera), an Iberian endemic species that can be found above 1,000 meters in the Peninsula, occupying most of the main mountain systems
To increase effectiveness in predicting the evolution of these butterfly populations, in this study we considered the interaction between A. morronensis and its food plants, as suggested by Gilman et al (2010), Romo et al (2014) or Valiente–Banuet et al (2015)
Summary
The effects of climate change are subject to much attention in conservation studies due to their influence on biodiversity, the changes produced on populations, communities and ecosystem dynamics, and the biotic interactions (Walther, 2010; Dawson et al, 2011; Giannini et al, 2013). One relevant effect is the temporal and spatial mismatch between life cycles and resource availability, threatening for herbivore insects (Cornelissen, 2011; Bellard et al, 2012). These insects appear to be negatively affected by climate change because of their sensitivity to changes in the environment, temperature (Wilson and Maclean, 2011). Settele et al (2008) performed climate change models for all European butterflies of the superfamily Papilionoidea to assess the risk it could represent to the European butterfly species. Their results suggest a severe loss of climatically suitable habitat for most species
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