Distribution, Magnitude, and Variability of Natural Oil Seeps in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

The Gulf of Mexico is a hydrocarbon-rich region characterized by the presence of floating oil slicks from persistent natural hydrocarbon seeps, which are reliably captured by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imaging. Improving the state of knowledge of hydrocarbon seepage in the Gulf of Mexico improves the understanding and quantification of natural seepage rates in North America. We used data derived from SAR scenes collected over the Gulf of Mexico from 1978 to 2018 to locate oil slick origins (OSOs), cluster the OSOs into discrete seep zones, estimate the flux of individual seepage events, and calculate seep recurrence rates. In total, 1618 discrete seep zones were identified, primarily concentrated in the northern Gulf of Mexico within the Louann salt formation, with a secondary concentration in the Campeche region. The centerline method was used to estimate flux based on the drift length of the slick (centerline), the slick area, and average current and wind speeds. Flux estimates from the surface area of oil slicks varied geographically and temporally; on average, seep zones exhibited an 11% recurrence rate, suggesting possible intermittent discharge from natural seeps. The estimated average instantaneous flux for natural seeps is 9.8 mL s−1 (1.9 × 103 bbl yr−1), with an annual discharge of 1.73–6.69 × 105 bbl yr−1 (2.75–10.63 × 104 m3 yr−1) for the entire Gulf of Mexico. The temporal variability of average flux suggests a potential decrease following 1995; however, analysis of flux in four lease blocks indicates that flux has not changed substantially over time. It is unlikely that production activities in the Gulf of Mexico impact natural seepage on a human timescale. Of the 1618 identified seep zones, 1401 are located within U.S. waters, with 70 identified as having flux and recurrence rates significantly higher than the average. Seep zones exhibiting high recurrence rates are more likely to be associated with positive seismic anomalies. Many of the methods developed for this study can be applied to SAR-detected oil slicks in other marine settings to better assess the magnitude of global hydrocarbon seepage.