Abstract
The paper presents an approach for making decisions about the future development of a distribution grid under uncertainty conditions. The levels of a grid hosting capacity and adequacy are examined using probabilistic approach compared to the conventional deterministic fit-andforget approach. It is shown that the probabilistic approach according to the 99 % confidence probability saves significant costs in comparison with the deterministic approach. The probabilistic calculations prove the use of an equipment rated capacity downsized by 2 points of a typical IEC scale, and in some cases to refuse the construction of a parallel circuit. The main contribution of the paper is a method for choosing an effective rated voltage of a distribution grid in a probabilistic interpretation based on the conventional formulas of Still, Zalessky and Illarionov. The technique includes obtaining the probability of loads location at different distances from power supply centre and the probability of load power distribution in a given range of values. It is shown that the calculation using the developed method makes possible to prefer grid rated voltage at least 1 point downsized by IEC scale with sufficient savings due to the difference in the equipment price compared with the deterministic fit-and-forget approach.
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