Distribution and survival of medicinal and aromatic plants is threatened by the anticipated climate change

Abstract

Changing climatic scenarios has been recognized as a prominent threat to biodiversity globally. Given the decline in biodiversity, there are more and more local, national, and global awareness campaigns as well as legislative initiatives devoted to biodiversity conservation. The present study aims to increase our knowledge and understanding of the distribution of six medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) in Jammu Kashmir, India under present and future climatic scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modelling approach. Results of the present study revealed changes in the habitat range of the plant species due to changing climatic scenarios leading to the expansion or contraction of their distribution range. A significant decline in the suitable habitats of Arisaema jacquemontii, Lamium album, Phytolacca acinosa and Urtica dioica is predicted. Podophyllum hexandrum and Thymus linearis are predicted to expand their distribution ranges, however, losing their currently suitable habitats. Thus, the present study recommends that these MAPs should be prioritized for conservation and abrupt appraisal of their present population status and updated IUCN categorization should be carried out. Furthermore, to provide more reliable information for conservation decision-making under future climate scenarios, more thorough models that take into account both the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to species persistence should be used.