Distribution and phenology of monarch butterfly larvae and their milkweed hosts in the South Central US

Abstract

South Central US milkweeds (Asclepias) are critical adult nectar and larval food resources for producing the first spring and last summer/fall generations of declining eastern migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus). This study addresses multiple gaps in assessment of monarch conservation priorities for the South Central US through analyses of monarch larval host selectivity, phenology, and spatial density, as well as the phenology, niche modeled distribution, and land cover selectivity of important milkweed hosts. Results are synthesized to estimate seasonal milkweed resource areas. About 70% of monarch larval activity occurred from mid-March to mid-July (early season) and 30% from mid-August to late November (late season). Twenty-six wild milkweed (Apocynaceae) hosts were mapped, including four new records for North America. Important hosts included Asclepias a. ssp. capricornu, A. viridis, and A. oenotheroides, that were utilized more frequently during early season, and Asclepias latifolia, utilized more frequently during late season. Landscape host selectivity was positive for A. viridis and A. a. ssp. capricornu in late and early seasons, respectively, and negative for A. oenotheroides in late season. Milkweed land cover selectivity was positive for Developed-Open Space and Grassland Herbaceous, and negative for Cultivated Crops and Shrub/Scrub. Seasonal milkweed resource areas and larval spatial densities resolved interior and coastal corridors providing functional connectivity for monarch spring and fall migrations. A potential gap in milkweed resource areas was identified in South Texas. The novel merging of milkweed niche models with larval phenology, host selectivity, milkweed phenology, and land cover selectivity informs conservation assessment.