Distributed generation capabilities of the national energy modeling system

Abstract

This report describes Berkeley Lab's exploration of how the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) models distributed generation (DG) and presents possible approaches for improving how DG is modeled. The on-site electric generation capability has been available since the AEO2000 version of NEMS. Berkeley Lab has previously completed research on distributed energy resources (DER) adoption at individual sites and has developed a DER Customer Adoption Model called DER-CAM. Given interest in this area, Berkeley Lab set out to understand how NEMS models small-scale on-site generation to assess how adequately DG is treated in NEMS, and to propose improvements or alternatives. The goal is to determine how well NEMS models the factors influencing DG adoption and to consider alternatives to the current approach. Most small-scale DG adoption takes place in the residential and commercial modules of NEMS. Investment in DG ultimately offsets purchases of electricity, which also eliminates the losses associated with transmission and distribution (TD enhancing the cash flow analysis but incorporating aspects of DG economics that are not currently represented, e.g. complex tariffs; and using an external geographic information system (GIS) driven analysis that can better and more intuitively identify niche markets.