Distributed energy systems scenario modeling for a rural agglomeration in Switzerland: A case study

Abstract

ABSTRACT Today’s electricity generation and distribution systems are characterized by largescale, -centralized technologies. However, as distributed energy technologies become more readily available and affordable, their role in future energy networks must be evaluated. This study assesses the role of distributed energy technologies in a Swiss rural agglomeration using a cost optimization, energy systems modeling approach until 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a baseline scenario in which future technology options reflect the existing infrastructure; a decentralized scenario which introduces suitable decentralized energy technologies without considering storage; and a decentralized scenario which additionally includes storage. carbon tax A is also applied in a subscenario which penalizes oil- -based technology investments. In the baseline scenario, it is found that although the energy supply mix does not vary significantly until 2050, there is a technology shift from district heating to more decentralized and efficient wood boilers, as well as heat pumps. The main investment introduced through the decentralized scenario without storageis a run-of-river plant. This plant reduces the dependency of the village on electricity imports from the national grid by 35% by utilizing 43% of the total, local hydro potential. In the storage scenario, run-of-the river plant is replaced by a hydro dam which can achieve an electricity import reduction of 65%, alongside a 6% reduction in system costs compared to the baseline scenario. This is achieved through ation of the full utilizhydro potentiallocal via seasonal storage. The introduction of a carbon taxto the model results in a significant replacement of oil boilers with heat pumps, as long as electricity network upgrade costs are not prohibitively expensive. Overall, the results indicate that distributed energy technologies (including storage) offer the potential to increase energy independence and achieve system cost savings for rural agglomerations with sufficient, local, natural resource potential in Switzerland.